Climate change puts world at 'tipping point'

Droughts will put millions of people around the world at risk

Global temperatures have already risen by at least 0.7 degrees Celsius. Global warming above 2-3 degrees in the second half of the century is likely unless extremely radical and determined efforts towards deep cuts in emissions are put in place before 2015.

The melting of the Greenland (GIS) and the West Antarctic Ice Shield (WAIS) could lead to a Tipping Point scenario, possibly a sea level rise of up to 0.5 meters by 2050. This is estimated to increase the value of assets at threat in all 136 global port mega-cities by more than 28 trillion US dollars.
On the North-eastern coast of the USA and due to a localized anomaly, the sea level could rise up to 0.65 meters, increasing the asset exposure from 1.350 to about 7.400 billion US dollars.

The South Western Part of the USA, namely California, is likely to be affected by droughts and levels of aridity similar to the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. The annual damages caused by wildfires could be tenfold compared to today's costs and could reach up to 2.5 billion US dollars per year by 2050 increasing to up to 14 billion by 2085.

70 percent of working population may be put at risk by droughts in India.  The future costs of droughts are expected to rise to approx. 40 billion US dollars per decade until the middle of the century.

The committed dieback of the Amazon Rainforest as a consequence of a significant increase in the frequency of droughts in the Amazon basin could reach 70 percent by the end of the century in a tipping point scenario. The impacts include loss of biodiversity and massive carbon release. Costs could reach up to 9.000 billion US dollars for a surface of around 4 million square kilometers.

"There is still a chance to avoid the worst"

"The Tipping Points report shows how quickly we are approaching the dangerous and irreversible level of global warming," Carstensen said. "Economic consequences of passing the climate tipping points are absolutely overwhelming."

"There is still a chance to avoid the worst and this report shows how urgent it is to act immediately. An agreement in Copenhagen is the best, if not the only chance to prevent the worst impacts of devastating climate change."

Today's insurance industry has learned lessons from its experiences after major losses caused by hurricanes like Andrew (1992), Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005). Better models will help people understand the frequency and strength of natural disasters. "But good models will not be enough to protect the climate," explains Michael Bruch, of Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty, the Allianz Group's industrial insurer. "The human component is playing an ever-increasing role in reducing the risk from natural disasters, in terms of both risk management and combating the human causes of climate change."

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