"Xynthia" behind "Kyrill" and "Lothar"

"Daria", "Herta", "Wiebke" and "Vivian" (1990) were the major storm series of the last decades / The damages potential due to storms is rising; so is the importance of risk management and prevention / Cold winter does not give "all clear" for climate change and global warming

Allianz SE Reinsurance
Munich, Mar 4, 2010

The storm "Xynthia", which blew across Europe between February 26 and 28, 2010, counts among the major storms of the last 20 years. However, it does fall behind the storm "Lothar" (1999) and "Kyrill" (2007).

It's storms like these, which wreak the greatest damages. Although even prior to "Xynthia", it wasn't all "calm ahead of the storm." The German winter 2009/10 was especially cold and full of snow and as a consequence there was an accumulation of smaller damages: falls on icy side walks, pipe ruptures in private households and the shut-down of businesses due to the harsh weather. The streets and traffic were in chaos, the German island Hiddensee in the Baltic Sea was stuck in ice and for the first time in years, snow covered all of Germany. Many people already see an "all clear" fort he debate on global warming. The experts disagree.

"The cold winter is not evidence for or against climate change or global warming," says Silvio Tschudi, head of Research and Development at Allianz SE Reinsurance. There have always been especially cold winters or extremely hot summers. Its not the extremes, which are important, but the trends: the tables and studies, which the reinsurance experts work with, show, that global temperatures are indeed rising – even if the reasons for this remain controversial. Also increasing are so called "extreme precipitation events" – heavy rains or snow storms.

What is worse for clients and insurers: not only is the severity or frequency of storms increasing, but also the loss potential.

"There was a fifteen-fold increase in weather-related insurance claims loss events over the past 30 years", states Markus Stowasser, meteorologist in Tschudi's team. Due to socio-economic trends like increasing urbanization and coastal / flood plain development, the costs of weather- and climate-related natural catastrophes and the loss potential increase as well. "According to our estimates, insured losses will continue to grow to 30 billion euros per annum between 2010 and 2019."

In order to cope with the increasing peak risk potential, insurers and reinsurers use ever improving modelling tools and state-of-the-art research.

Here, Allianz benefits from the immediate cooperation of its primary and reinsurance companies. Aggregated data from Allianz SE Reinsurance make it possible to look at the entire risk portfolio. At the same time, the Group's primary insurers work directly with the clients on claims regulation and also on prevention opportunities. These include early warning systems, tips for winterization, behavioural guidelines in case of storm events and recommendations for prevention measures in construction and for businesses.

"Risk management and prevention are very important. Because even insured losses can't be fully compensated by the insurer's payment – especially not the emotional losses", explains Silvio Tschudi. "As a large insurer we can provide the experience, data and research insights to help improve the risk behaviour of our clients and foster prevention."

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